Using social media to market your business shouldn't take up most of your workday, but you do need to carve out some time for it.
Unfortunately, there are plenty of reasons why people don't bother doing that. They tell themselves things like: I'm too busy with important work, I can't see any value in it, I don't know what to post, I can't figure out the tools, I think social media is just for kids.
But deep down inside, most business people know they really should spend more time with social media. Here are 5 tips to help you find the time to fit social media into your busy schedule.
1. Understand the importance of social media to your business.
With all the professional and personal demands on you, there's only one way to find the time to blog, tweet, share, and comment: you make the time for social media because you know it's important. The truth is, as a business person, you need to do more online than just consume content or share what others have created. You also need to be a content creator, because that ultimately will build your business.
2. Take a good hard look at how you spend your day.
A recent survey revealed that we business people spend more than one fourth of our day (28%) dealing with emails. We're in meetings for 19% of the day and we think half of them are a total waste of time. Another 25% of the day is taken up with meaningless distractions. A second study reported that executives spend up to 33% of the day in meetings. What all this tells us is that finding the time for social media is just a matter of making it a priority over unimportant emails, non-productive meetings, and a list of activities that are just daily distractions.
3. Make a commitment to spend a small amount of time on social media every day.
Consider this your daily social business investment. Spread out your activities. Tweet daily, but perhaps post to your blog just once a week. Share links and comment on other sites as the opportunities arise, but limit these pursuits to ten or fifteen minutes a day. Amazingly, this small daily commitment soon adds up. In a year, you've tweeted hundreds of times, written dozens of blog posts, connected with a good group of people, and discovered lots of things you didn't think you'd be learning about.
4. Be guided by your strongest interests.
Blog, tweet, share, and comment on the things you care about most (of course, keep it work-related and avoid politics and religion). It takes far less time to write about and share the things you really know about and appreciate. It also attracts an audience of like-minded people. They in turn can provide stimulating questions, ideas, and points of view that will inspire fresh thoughts from you. You wind up creating an idea factory that keeps generating more terrific share-worthy content with a lot less time and effort.
5. Focus on helping others.
The idea of "pay it forward," give-to-get (G2G), "karma" if you like, works well in the social world. Share the ideas and work of people you regard highly and they'll take a look at what you're doing. Helping others doesn't take a lot of effort, but over time, people will start to see you as another authority.
If you follow these tips, you can become an active social media contributor without spending a ton of your life online. Why not get started now. Here's to your success in social media as you keep putting together your best year ever.... Enjoy a great month!
Thursday, May 30, 2013
Tuesday, May 28, 2013
Inside Lending Newsletter - Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "In April the sweet showers fall..." --Geoffrey Chaucer, Prologue to 'The Canterbury Tales'
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... A shower of home purchases sure sweetened the real estate market in April, as Existing Home Sales gained 0.6% for the month, hitting an annual rate of 4.97 million units. This put them up 9.7% over a year ago, reaching their highest sales pace since November 2009, when they were helped along by an $8,000 homebuyer tax credit. No government largesse is needed now to lure buyers, and the median price of an existing home is up 11.0% from a year ago, the supply at 5.2 months.
April was a sweet month for new home purchases too. New home sales were up 2.3%, to a 454,000 annual rate, and are now up a solid 29.0% versus a year ago. The faster sales pace meant that a 5,000-unit increase in inventories did not push out the 4.1 months' supply. With the number of completed new homes at a record low, buyers are moving quickly. The median new home selling price is up 14.9% over a year ago. In addition, the FHFA index of prices for all homes financed by conforming mortgages was up 1.3% in March and is up 7.2% over a year ago.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Getting new business is key to every business. Each day, focus as soon as you can on doing one thing to bring in new clients or to create new opportunities with the clients you have.
Review of Last Week
APPLYING THE BRAKES... After four record-setting weeks in a row for stocks, investors put on the brakes, all indexes closing down for the week. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony, plus comments in the FOMC meeting minutes, made Wall Streeters worry that the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchases, designed to keep interest rates down and the economy heading back up. Some Fed members saw this starting in late June if the economy showed more evidence of growth, but "...views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome."
There was plenty of reason for investor optimism going into the long holiday weekend. Friday's Durable Good Orders report showed stronger than expected demand in April for big ticket purchases. Thursday's weekly unemployment claims were down 23,000 to 340,000, while continuing claims dropped 112,000, to 2.91 million, the lowest they've been since March 2008. Other good news in a light week of data included the better than forecast April new home sales and existing home sales that were perfectly in line with predictions.
The week ended with the Dow down 0.3%, to 15303; the S&P 500 down 1.1%, to 1650; and the Nasdaq also down 1.1%, to 3459.
Even though stocks slid, concerns that the Fed would slow its buying program kept bond prices in check. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .86, at $104.18. National average mortgage rates ticked up again last week in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. They're still near historically low, well beneath levels of a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Purchase Index was down 4% for the week, but is up 10% compared to a year ago.
DID YOU KNOW?... An online real estate listing site calculated that national home prices are still 7% undervalued in Q2 of 2013.
This Week’s Forecast
CONSUMERS CONFIDENT, GDP HOLDS, PENDING HOME SALES INCH AHEAD... A solid improvement in Consumer Confidence is expected for May. The 2nd Estimate of GDP is predicted to show economic growth holding at a middling 2.5%. Pending Home Sales are forecast inching up in April, indicating sales of existing homes should continue to climb.
Other items of interest include the Core PCE Prices read on inflation for April. Here the Fed should be happy to see things under control. The Chicago PMI reading of Midwest manufacturing activity is forecast up a tick for May.
Financial markets were closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... A shower of home purchases sure sweetened the real estate market in April, as Existing Home Sales gained 0.6% for the month, hitting an annual rate of 4.97 million units. This put them up 9.7% over a year ago, reaching their highest sales pace since November 2009, when they were helped along by an $8,000 homebuyer tax credit. No government largesse is needed now to lure buyers, and the median price of an existing home is up 11.0% from a year ago, the supply at 5.2 months.
April was a sweet month for new home purchases too. New home sales were up 2.3%, to a 454,000 annual rate, and are now up a solid 29.0% versus a year ago. The faster sales pace meant that a 5,000-unit increase in inventories did not push out the 4.1 months' supply. With the number of completed new homes at a record low, buyers are moving quickly. The median new home selling price is up 14.9% over a year ago. In addition, the FHFA index of prices for all homes financed by conforming mortgages was up 1.3% in March and is up 7.2% over a year ago.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Getting new business is key to every business. Each day, focus as soon as you can on doing one thing to bring in new clients or to create new opportunities with the clients you have.
Review of Last Week
APPLYING THE BRAKES... After four record-setting weeks in a row for stocks, investors put on the brakes, all indexes closing down for the week. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony, plus comments in the FOMC meeting minutes, made Wall Streeters worry that the Fed will begin tapering its bond purchases, designed to keep interest rates down and the economy heading back up. Some Fed members saw this starting in late June if the economy showed more evidence of growth, but "...views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome."
There was plenty of reason for investor optimism going into the long holiday weekend. Friday's Durable Good Orders report showed stronger than expected demand in April for big ticket purchases. Thursday's weekly unemployment claims were down 23,000 to 340,000, while continuing claims dropped 112,000, to 2.91 million, the lowest they've been since March 2008. Other good news in a light week of data included the better than forecast April new home sales and existing home sales that were perfectly in line with predictions.
The week ended with the Dow down 0.3%, to 15303; the S&P 500 down 1.1%, to 1650; and the Nasdaq also down 1.1%, to 3459.
Even though stocks slid, concerns that the Fed would slow its buying program kept bond prices in check. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .86, at $104.18. National average mortgage rates ticked up again last week in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. They're still near historically low, well beneath levels of a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association's Purchase Index was down 4% for the week, but is up 10% compared to a year ago.
DID YOU KNOW?... An online real estate listing site calculated that national home prices are still 7% undervalued in Q2 of 2013.
This Week’s Forecast
CONSUMERS CONFIDENT, GDP HOLDS, PENDING HOME SALES INCH AHEAD... A solid improvement in Consumer Confidence is expected for May. The 2nd Estimate of GDP is predicted to show economic growth holding at a middling 2.5%. Pending Home Sales are forecast inching up in April, indicating sales of existing homes should continue to climb.
Other items of interest include the Core PCE Prices read on inflation for April. Here the Fed should be happy to see things under control. The Chicago PMI reading of Midwest manufacturing activity is forecast up a tick for May.
Financial markets were closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Monday, May 20, 2013
Inside Lending Newsletter - Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Optimism is essential to achievement and it is also the foundation of courage and true progress." --Nicholas Murray Butler, American diplomat and educator
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... It definitely takes guts to remain optimistic in the face of some of the housing data coming at us these days. Last week, for example, we were greeted with a 16.5% drop in Housing Starts for April. It helps to dig into these reports. The dip was mostly due to multi-family starts, which are very volatile month to month, and were down 38.9%. Turns out, single-family starts were off just 2.1%. Taking a long-term view helps even more. Starts overall are up 13.1% versus a year ago, with single-family starts up a healthy 20.8%. So there.
It didn't take any effort at all to stay optimistic in the face of the April Building Permits report. New building permits rose 14.3% during the month to a 1.02 million annual rate. Permits for single-family homes are now up 27.5% over a year ago, and multi-family permits are up a whopping 50.9%. An analysis of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data revealed that 64% of building permits issued in the first quarter of this year were for single-family homes. And they were at the highest level since Q1 of 2008.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Use social media to give something back. Shining the light on others doing good in the community attracts attention to yourself in the best way possible.
Review of Last Week
BULL-IEVE IT!... Given the week's mostly disappointing economic data, it was hard to believe the bulls prevailed on Wall Street again, pushing stocks to their fourth weekly gain in a row with the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes setting new records. To be fair, the bulls did have some decent reports on which to base their enthusiasm. April Retail Sales, Building Permits, and Leading Economic Indicators all surprised to the upside. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for May also handily beat estimates.
However, a plethora of indicators headed to the downside, starting with weak readings for April Industrial Production and the New York Empire Manufacturing Index for May. The disappointing economic news continued with higher than expected Initial Unemployment Claims, a dip in Housing Starts, and a lower than expected Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing for that region. But the CPI reading for April showed that consumer price inflation is staying well under control.
The week ended with the Dow up 1.6%, to 15354; the S&P 500 up 2.1%, to 1667; and the Nasdaq up 1.8%, to 3499.
As equity markets hit new all-time highs, bonds came under considerable selling pressure and prices slid. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .14, at $105.04. National average mortgage rates rose again in Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, although they remain well below levels of a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan demand off for the week but still up 10% from a year ago.
DID YOU KNOW?... A bond is a debt instrument issued for a period of more than one year with the purpose of raising capital by borrowing. An investor who buys a bond becomes a creditor of the issuer but does not gain any ownership rights, as in the case of stocks.
This Week’s Forecast
HOME SALES GAIN, DURABLE GOODS RECOVER, FED CHITCHAT... Additional data on the housing recovery comes in this week and more progress is expected for April. Existing Home Sales are forecast to inch higher to just below a 5 million unit annual rate. New Home Sales should also continue edging up farther into 400K territory.
Wednesday's FOMC Minutes from the Fed's May 1 meeting will spark interest, as we see whether the discussion sheds any more light on the central bank's view of the economy. The week ends with April Durable Goods, predicted to bounce back into positive territory, showing a healthier market for long-term purchases.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... It definitely takes guts to remain optimistic in the face of some of the housing data coming at us these days. Last week, for example, we were greeted with a 16.5% drop in Housing Starts for April. It helps to dig into these reports. The dip was mostly due to multi-family starts, which are very volatile month to month, and were down 38.9%. Turns out, single-family starts were off just 2.1%. Taking a long-term view helps even more. Starts overall are up 13.1% versus a year ago, with single-family starts up a healthy 20.8%. So there.
It didn't take any effort at all to stay optimistic in the face of the April Building Permits report. New building permits rose 14.3% during the month to a 1.02 million annual rate. Permits for single-family homes are now up 27.5% over a year ago, and multi-family permits are up a whopping 50.9%. An analysis of U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development data revealed that 64% of building permits issued in the first quarter of this year were for single-family homes. And they were at the highest level since Q1 of 2008.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Use social media to give something back. Shining the light on others doing good in the community attracts attention to yourself in the best way possible.
Review of Last Week
BULL-IEVE IT!... Given the week's mostly disappointing economic data, it was hard to believe the bulls prevailed on Wall Street again, pushing stocks to their fourth weekly gain in a row with the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes setting new records. To be fair, the bulls did have some decent reports on which to base their enthusiasm. April Retail Sales, Building Permits, and Leading Economic Indicators all surprised to the upside. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment index for May also handily beat estimates.
However, a plethora of indicators headed to the downside, starting with weak readings for April Industrial Production and the New York Empire Manufacturing Index for May. The disappointing economic news continued with higher than expected Initial Unemployment Claims, a dip in Housing Starts, and a lower than expected Philadelphia Fed Index of manufacturing for that region. But the CPI reading for April showed that consumer price inflation is staying well under control.
The week ended with the Dow up 1.6%, to 15354; the S&P 500 up 2.1%, to 1667; and the Nasdaq up 1.8%, to 3499.
As equity markets hit new all-time highs, bonds came under considerable selling pressure and prices slid. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .14, at $105.04. National average mortgage rates rose again in Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, although they remain well below levels of a year ago. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan demand off for the week but still up 10% from a year ago.
DID YOU KNOW?... A bond is a debt instrument issued for a period of more than one year with the purpose of raising capital by borrowing. An investor who buys a bond becomes a creditor of the issuer but does not gain any ownership rights, as in the case of stocks.
This Week’s Forecast
HOME SALES GAIN, DURABLE GOODS RECOVER, FED CHITCHAT... Additional data on the housing recovery comes in this week and more progress is expected for April. Existing Home Sales are forecast to inch higher to just below a 5 million unit annual rate. New Home Sales should also continue edging up farther into 400K territory.
Wednesday's FOMC Minutes from the Fed's May 1 meeting will spark interest, as we see whether the discussion sheds any more light on the central bank's view of the economy. The week ends with April Durable Goods, predicted to bounce back into positive territory, showing a healthier market for long-term purchases.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Thursday, May 16, 2013
The 5 most wanted home upgrades - PLUS 3 things to consider before renting your home
A recent survey found that when people are buying or remodeling a home, these upgrades top the list:
1. Outdoor living area. A deck, screened porch, or attached patio makes a nice gathering place. It doesn't have to be huge, with a big outdoor kitchen or fireplace, but it's nice if it adds curb appeal.
2. Extra bedroom with its own bathroom. People want this for an aging parent, a teen retreat, or guests.
3. Home office / family computer room. This is where everyone can dock their electronics and be together, but not necessarily doing the same activity. You can often configure this kind of space in an existing kitchen or family room.
4. Everyday dining area in or near the kitchen. New homes sometimes offer extended kitchen/family rooms with three or four eating areas. A good builder or architect can often design this for an existing home.
5. Better bathrooms. Kitchen and bath upgrades are always popular. This year, bathrooms are the preferred remodeling choice, with people wanting better features and finishes.
HOW TO DECIDE IF YOU SHOULD RENT YOUR HOME
If you'd like to sell your home but are thinking about renting, hoping to get a higher price in a year or two, here's how to proceed:
1. Research the local rental market. Talk to realtors and property managers to find out how rentable your home is and how much you can realistically charge. Compare that number to your monthly obligations: mortgage payment, property taxes, insurance, and costs for maintenance or a property manager. Finally, ask rental professionals or your local landlords association if there are any rent-control or eviction-control ordinances. In some areas it can be very expensive to evict even nonpaying tenants. 2. Check your home's condition. If you've done pricey upgrades, you might want to think twice about renting, or factor them into the deposit and monthly rent. However, if your home is in livable condition but will need upgrades before you sell, renting it "as is" may be smart.
3. Carefully choose your tenant. Free ads save money, but it may be worth it to hire a realtor or property manager with a tough tenant screening process. Pull a credit report of course, but that won't tell you how someone will treat your home. Decide whether to allow pets. Often the best tenant is a friend or friend of a friend, so get the word out through your own online and offline social networks.
Whenever you're ready to buy, we're happy to answer any questions you may have about financing that purchase. We can also help with refinancing your existing home or funding home improvements. Please call or email us any time. We're always here to help.... Have a great day!
P.S.: The housing market is recovering, but home prices are still extremely affordable, and mortgage rates remain near historical lows. If you're thinking about buying or refinancing, it's smart to get the process started early. Please call or email us to talk about the attractive options available now.
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1. Outdoor living area. A deck, screened porch, or attached patio makes a nice gathering place. It doesn't have to be huge, with a big outdoor kitchen or fireplace, but it's nice if it adds curb appeal.
2. Extra bedroom with its own bathroom. People want this for an aging parent, a teen retreat, or guests.
3. Home office / family computer room. This is where everyone can dock their electronics and be together, but not necessarily doing the same activity. You can often configure this kind of space in an existing kitchen or family room.
4. Everyday dining area in or near the kitchen. New homes sometimes offer extended kitchen/family rooms with three or four eating areas. A good builder or architect can often design this for an existing home.
5. Better bathrooms. Kitchen and bath upgrades are always popular. This year, bathrooms are the preferred remodeling choice, with people wanting better features and finishes.
HOW TO DECIDE IF YOU SHOULD RENT YOUR HOME
If you'd like to sell your home but are thinking about renting, hoping to get a higher price in a year or two, here's how to proceed:
1. Research the local rental market. Talk to realtors and property managers to find out how rentable your home is and how much you can realistically charge. Compare that number to your monthly obligations: mortgage payment, property taxes, insurance, and costs for maintenance or a property manager. Finally, ask rental professionals or your local landlords association if there are any rent-control or eviction-control ordinances. In some areas it can be very expensive to evict even nonpaying tenants. 2. Check your home's condition. If you've done pricey upgrades, you might want to think twice about renting, or factor them into the deposit and monthly rent. However, if your home is in livable condition but will need upgrades before you sell, renting it "as is" may be smart.
3. Carefully choose your tenant. Free ads save money, but it may be worth it to hire a realtor or property manager with a tough tenant screening process. Pull a credit report of course, but that won't tell you how someone will treat your home. Decide whether to allow pets. Often the best tenant is a friend or friend of a friend, so get the word out through your own online and offline social networks.
Whenever you're ready to buy, we're happy to answer any questions you may have about financing that purchase. We can also help with refinancing your existing home or funding home improvements. Please call or email us any time. We're always here to help.... Have a great day!
P.S.: The housing market is recovering, but home prices are still extremely affordable, and mortgage rates remain near historical lows. If you're thinking about buying or refinancing, it's smart to get the process started early. Please call or email us to talk about the attractive options available now.
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Inside Lending Newsletter
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "Saints are sinners who kept on going" --Robert Louis Stevenson, Scottish novelist, poet, and essayist
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Home prices also keep on going, and in a decidedly upward direction. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that for Q1 of this year, the median existing home price jumped 11.3% over last year, the largest annual gain since Q4 of 2005. But Q1 inventory was down 16.8%. The NAR's chief economist expounded: "Inventory conditions are expected to remain fairly constrained this year, so overall price increases should be well above the historic gain of one-to-two percentage points above the rate of inflation."
A leading research analytics firm reported that home prices in March jumped 10.5% year over year, posting their biggest annual gain in seven years. Plus, the 1.9% price increase over February was the 13th monthly gain in a row. These analysts expect April to register a 12% annual and a 2.7% monthly price hike, if you exclude distressed sales. Finally, Fannie Mae reported a milestone in consumer optimism about home prices: the majority of Americans they surveyed now expect home prices to increase over the next year.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... From Warren Buffett: "...the biggest thing that kills [businesses] is complacency. You want a restlessness, a feeling that somebody's always after you, but you're going to stay ahead."
Review of Last Week
BREAKING RECORDS AGAIN... Investor enthusiasm pushed U.S. stocks to their third week of record-setting gains. Friday the Dow ended solidly above 15,000, at its highest close ever. Not to be outdone, the S&P 500 also hit an all-time high, well north of 1600. There wasn't much economic data or financial news to distract investors and quite a few Q1 corporate earnings reports continued to surprise to the upside. Other points to ponder included a steep decline in commodity prices and the dollar's surge in value over the Japanese yen.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims came in at 323,000, a five-year low. Continuing Unemployment Claims were barely above 3 million. The final source of good feelings came Friday, when the Treasury reported its monthly budget statement. In April, the U.S. registered the largest budget surplus in five years: $113 billion. Of course, income tax payments usually make April a surplus month. But, hey, through the first seven months of the government's 2013 fiscal year, the deficit is down to $488 billion, 32% lower than the same period last year.
The week ended with the Dow up 1.0%, to 15118; the S&P 500 up 1.2%, to 1634; and the Nasdaq up 1.7%, to 3437.
With stocks soaring and the week bereft of worrisome news or disappointing data, bond prices suffered. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .86, at $105.18. After five weeks of declines, national average mortgage rates rose in Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, but remain near historical lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan applications were up 2% for the week and UP 12% compared to a year ago.
DID YOU KNOW?... The NAR reports: "Most Americans believe a housing recovery is truly occurring throughout the country. The share of Americans who think it is a good time to sell has doubled during the last year."
This Week’s Forecast
RETAIL DOWN, MANUFACTURING UP, INFLATION SIMMERS, BUILDERS COOL... This week is packed with economic data, starting with Monday's Retail Sales for April, expected down for another month. Nonetheless, factories are humming, according to both NY Empire Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed forecasts.
Staying on simmer, inflation did not heat up in April, with wholesale PPI and consumer CPI numbers predicted slightly down overall and up only a tick in Core readings that exclude food and energy. Although the housing market is recovering, builder enthusiasm cooled off in April, with Housing Starts expected to dip below the 1 million annual rate.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of May 13 – May 17
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
May 13 08:30 Retail Sales Apr –0.3% –0.4% HIGH
M
May 13 10:00 Business Inventories Mar 0.3% 0.1% Moderate
W
May 15 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Apr –0.5% –0.6% Moderate
W
May 15 08:30 Core PPI Apr 0.1% 0.2% Moderate
W
May 15 08:30 NY Empire Manufacturing Index May 3.5 3.1 Moderate
W
May 15 09:15 Industrial Production Apr –0.2% 0.4% Moderate
W
May 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 78.3% 78.5% Moderate
W
May 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 5/11 NA 0.230M Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 5/11 330K 323K Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 5/4 3.005M 3.005M Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Apr –0.2% –0.2% HIGH
Th
May 16 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.1% HIGH
Th
May 16 08:30 Housing Starts Apr 970K 1.036M Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Building Permits Apr 950K 902K Moderate
Th
May 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index May 2.5 1.3 HIGH
F
May 17 09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment May 78.5 76.4 Moderate
F
May 17 10:00 Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Apr 0.3% –0.1% Moderate
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Economists expect the Fed to keep the Funds Rate at the present exceptionally low level at least through Q3 of this year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Jun 19 0%–0.25% Jul 31 0%–0.25% Sep 18 0%–0.25% Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Jun 19
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INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Home prices also keep on going, and in a decidedly upward direction. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that for Q1 of this year, the median existing home price jumped 11.3% over last year, the largest annual gain since Q4 of 2005. But Q1 inventory was down 16.8%. The NAR's chief economist expounded: "Inventory conditions are expected to remain fairly constrained this year, so overall price increases should be well above the historic gain of one-to-two percentage points above the rate of inflation."
A leading research analytics firm reported that home prices in March jumped 10.5% year over year, posting their biggest annual gain in seven years. Plus, the 1.9% price increase over February was the 13th monthly gain in a row. These analysts expect April to register a 12% annual and a 2.7% monthly price hike, if you exclude distressed sales. Finally, Fannie Mae reported a milestone in consumer optimism about home prices: the majority of Americans they surveyed now expect home prices to increase over the next year.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... From Warren Buffett: "...the biggest thing that kills [businesses] is complacency. You want a restlessness, a feeling that somebody's always after you, but you're going to stay ahead."
Review of Last Week
BREAKING RECORDS AGAIN... Investor enthusiasm pushed U.S. stocks to their third week of record-setting gains. Friday the Dow ended solidly above 15,000, at its highest close ever. Not to be outdone, the S&P 500 also hit an all-time high, well north of 1600. There wasn't much economic data or financial news to distract investors and quite a few Q1 corporate earnings reports continued to surprise to the upside. Other points to ponder included a steep decline in commodity prices and the dollar's surge in value over the Japanese yen.
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims came in at 323,000, a five-year low. Continuing Unemployment Claims were barely above 3 million. The final source of good feelings came Friday, when the Treasury reported its monthly budget statement. In April, the U.S. registered the largest budget surplus in five years: $113 billion. Of course, income tax payments usually make April a surplus month. But, hey, through the first seven months of the government's 2013 fiscal year, the deficit is down to $488 billion, 32% lower than the same period last year.
The week ended with the Dow up 1.0%, to 15118; the S&P 500 up 1.2%, to 1634; and the Nasdaq up 1.7%, to 3437.
With stocks soaring and the week bereft of worrisome news or disappointing data, bond prices suffered. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down .86, at $105.18. After five weeks of declines, national average mortgage rates rose in Freddie Mac's weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, but remain near historical lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported purchase loan applications were up 2% for the week and UP 12% compared to a year ago.
DID YOU KNOW?... The NAR reports: "Most Americans believe a housing recovery is truly occurring throughout the country. The share of Americans who think it is a good time to sell has doubled during the last year."
This Week’s Forecast
RETAIL DOWN, MANUFACTURING UP, INFLATION SIMMERS, BUILDERS COOL... This week is packed with economic data, starting with Monday's Retail Sales for April, expected down for another month. Nonetheless, factories are humming, according to both NY Empire Manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed forecasts.
Staying on simmer, inflation did not heat up in April, with wholesale PPI and consumer CPI numbers predicted slightly down overall and up only a tick in Core readings that exclude food and energy. Although the housing market is recovering, builder enthusiasm cooled off in April, with Housing Starts expected to dip below the 1 million annual rate.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of May 13 – May 17
Date Time (ET) Release For Consensus Prior Impact
M
May 13 08:30 Retail Sales Apr –0.3% –0.4% HIGH
M
May 13 10:00 Business Inventories Mar 0.3% 0.1% Moderate
W
May 15 08:30 Producer Price Index (PPI) Apr –0.5% –0.6% Moderate
W
May 15 08:30 Core PPI Apr 0.1% 0.2% Moderate
W
May 15 08:30 NY Empire Manufacturing Index May 3.5 3.1 Moderate
W
May 15 09:15 Industrial Production Apr –0.2% 0.4% Moderate
W
May 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Apr 78.3% 78.5% Moderate
W
May 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 5/11 NA 0.230M Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Initial Unemployment Claims 5/11 330K 323K Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Continuing Unemployment Claims 5/4 3.005M 3.005M Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Apr –0.2% –0.2% HIGH
Th
May 16 08:30 Core CPI Apr 0.2% 0.1% HIGH
Th
May 16 08:30 Housing Starts Apr 970K 1.036M Moderate
Th
May 16 08:30 Building Permits Apr 950K 902K Moderate
Th
May 16 10:00 Philadelphia Fed Index May 2.5 1.3 HIGH
F
May 17 09:55 Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment May 78.5 76.4 Moderate
F
May 17 10:00 Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) Apr 0.3% –0.1% Moderate
Federal Reserve Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Economists expect the Fed to keep the Funds Rate at the present exceptionally low level at least through Q3 of this year. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Jun 19 0%–0.25% Jul 31 0%–0.25% Sep 18 0%–0.25% Probability of change from current policy:
After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Jun 19
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